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It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

According to the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.